Using Non-Parametric Tests to Evaluate Traffic Forecasting Performance.

This paper proposes the use of a number of nonparametric comparison methods for evaluating traffic flow forecasting techniques. The advantage to these methods is that they are free of any distributional assumptions and can be legitimately used on small datasets. To demonstrate the applicability of these tests, a number of models for the forecasting of traffic flows are developed. The one-step-ahead forecasts produced are then assessed using nonparametric methods. Consideration is given as to whether a method is universally good or good at reproducing a particular aspect of the original series. That choice will be dictated, to a degree, by the user’s purpose for assessing traffic flow

The present gravitational wave detection effort

Gravitational radiation offers a new non-electromagnetic window through which to observe the universe. The LIGO and Virgo Collaborations have completed a first joint data run with unprecedented sensitivities to gravitational waves. Results from searches in the data for a variety of astrophysical sources are presented. A second joint data run with improved detector sensitivities is underway, and soon major upgrades will be carried out to build Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo with expected improvements in event rates of more than 1000. In parallel there is a vigorous effort in the radio pulsar community to detect nHz gravitational waves via the timing residuals in an array of pulsars at different locations in the sky.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/85430/1/jpconf10_203_012002.pd

Transverse-momentum and pseudorapidity distributions of charged hadrons in pp collisions at √s=0.9 and 2.36 TeV

Measurements of inclusive charged-hadron transverse-momentum and pseudorapidity distributions are presented for proton-proton collisions at root s = 0.9 and 2.36 TeV. The data were collected with the CMS detector during the LHC commissioning in December 2009. For non-single-diffractive interactions, the average charged-hadron transverse momentum is measured to be 0.46 +/- 0.01 (stat.) +/- 0.01 (syst.) GeV/c at 0.9 TeV and 0.50 +/- 0.01 (stat.) +/- 0.01 (syst.) GeV/c at 2.36 TeV, for pseudorapidities between -2.4 and +2.4. At these energies, the measured pseudorapidity densities in the central region, dN(ch)/d eta vertical bar(vertical bar eta vertical bar and pp collisions. The results at 2.36 TeV represent the highest-energy measurements at a particle collider to date

Assessing the Impact of Local Transport Policy Instruments.

This working paper brings together some relevant material to assist the process of assessing local transport policy instruments. The paper was written with the support of the DETR, but is unofficial. It is intended to be a helpful resource document for local authorities who have indicated in the past a need for guidance in where to look for evidence on the diverse range of transport policy instruments referred to in the White Paper (CM3950). The authors would be grateful for feedback and comments. This document is not intended to be a complete description of the local transport plan process (for that, see the Local Transport Plan Guidance). Nor does this note aim to give a comprehensive review of the appraisal requirements for Local Transport Plans (for that, see Annex E of the Local Transport Plan Guidance and, where relevant, the Guidance on Methodology for Multi-Modal Studies). Important elements in the LTP process including the combination of a set of individual policy elements into a strategy, and the activity of public consultation are not considered. Nor do we consider the specification of problems or the set of objectives within which local transport planning is currently taking place – for these, see for example DETR, 2000. The focus of this piece of work is on assessment of the impact of individual instruments within an urban context. Specifically it considers their effects in terms of:- their impact on transport supply their impact on transport demand their final outcome in terms of their transport, environmental and other impacts When considering policy instruments which impact on urban transport systems, there comes a point at which the impacts and interactions of policies become extremely complicated. At some point, modelling becomes an important part of the assessment process, depending on:- − the capital and recurrent costs at stake − the size of the impact on users and other affected parties, which can be large without the capital costs being large − data availability and the costs of obtaining data for modelling − the ability of a model to represent the policy tool under consideration and the cost of model development. Policy initiatives such as major infrastructure investment, road user charging schemes, or significant roadspace reallocation schemes will require model-based approaches. This note may therefore be useful in one of two contexts firstly, where the intervention is not sufficiently large or significant to warrant a model-based approach, and secondly, to aid a rough calculation at an early stage so as to enable an initial assessment to be made which can then be investigated further. In the next section, we provide a brief generic review of the supply and demand issues so as to give some background to the general analysis and show how second round effects (supply/demand interactions) can be significant in determining the final equilibrium. We also comment on generic appraisal issues. In section three we provide a short review of eleven of the most important policy investments and their supply and/or demand effects. Where possible we have provided approximate indications of their impact, but these should not be interpreted as accurate and applicable to all situations. Finally, in Appendices we provide a reference list of some sixty policy instruments which we have identified in literature and other surveys, a note on elasticity methods for demand estimation, and a note on appraisal practice